For Immediate Release
March 10, 2008
Lake Research Poll Shows Connolly with Strong Lead in VA-11 Democratic Primary
The Gerry Connolly for Congress campaign released a poll today showing Chairman Connolly with a commanding 23-point lead in the Democratic primary in Virginia's 11th district. The poll, performed by Lake Research Partners, confirms Connolly as the front-runner in the race.
"We're thrilled with these numbers," said James Walkinshaw, Connolly's campaign manager. "But we know there's a lot of work left to do. Chairman Connolly has a record of getting results and voters recognize that."
Connolly's 23-point lead is reflected in an initial head-to-head ballot question and is not a result of voters hearing positive or negative messaging on either candidate. It's a reflection of where the race stands based on the information voters have today.
When voters receive positive profiles of Connolly and Byrne, Connolly builds on his strength and garners 51% of the vote, expanding his lead to 26 points.
"We're especially happy with these numbers in light of the fact that we didn't test any negative messages against Mrs. Byrne," said Walkinshaw. "In fact, we gave her a glowing profile. This is an accurate, unvarnished view of the race."
Connolly was first elected to the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors in 1995. In 2003, he was elected Chairman of the Board. Prior to serving in elected office, Connolly spent ten years with the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, where he managed committee oversight of international economic issues, international narcotics control and United Nations and Middle East policies. He received a B.A. in Literature from Maryknoll College and an M.A. in Public Administration from Harvard University in 1979.
(full text of polling memo below)
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To: Interested Parties
From: Celinda Lake and Joshua Ulibarri
Subject: Democratic Primary Poll Results from VA's 11th CD
A new Lake Research partners's survey of likely voters shows that Gerry Connolly, Chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, is the strong favorite in the Democratic Primary in Virginia's 11th Congressional District. Connolly is better known and better liked than Leslie Byrne, and has a commanding lead in the trial heat.
Comparatively, Leslie Byrne has a weaker profile despite representing this district in Congress, serving in the House of Delegates and State Senate, and being the Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 2005. Only six in ten voters can rate her (63%) with 50% rating her favorably and 13% rating her unfavorably for a favorable ratio of only 3.8 to 1.
Voters are also impressed with Connolly's job performance as Chairman. Sixty-six percent say he has done an excellent (22%) or good job (44%). Only one in five are critical (13% just fair, 5% poor). On the other hand, Byrne receives lukewarm ratings for her time in the House of Delegates and State Senate (9% excellent, 30% good) or her time in Congress (12% excellent, 29% good).
The real demonstration of Connolly's strength is the head-to-head race where he leads overwhelmingly. Forty-five percent of voters say they would support Connolly today while 22% say they would support Byrne (32% are undecided and 1% supports Doug Denneny). Among voters who know both Connolly and Byrne, Connolly leads 47% to 29%, indicating that even if Byrne has the resources to introduce herself to voters, Connolly will still have the advantage. More importantly, when voters hear balanced positive profiles of both candidates, Connolly surpasses majority support and leads 51% to 25%. Notably, by a ratio of 3 to 1, primary voters believe Connolly is "the Democrat with the best chance of winning", (56% Connolly to 17% Byrne).
Gerry Connolly is the strongest candidate in this primary. Primary voters know him and they like him. They respect the job he has done as Chairman, and they are ready to support him in his potential race for Congress.
Methodology: Lake Research partners designed and administered this survey, which was conducted by phone using professional interviewers. The survey was conducted among 400 registered voters in Virginia's 11th CD who have voted in past primaries and are likely to vote in the 2008 Primary Election. The survey was conducted January 7-10, 2008. The margin of error for the full sample is +/-4.9 percentage points.
